Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
